Mill Valley CA Real Estate Market 2009 Review

February 11, 2010

Filed under: Mill Valley — dwdupont @ 7:04 pm

Marin Real Estate
In the last 44 years, there have been only two years (excluding 2008 & 2009) when average home prices in Marin County have decreased from one year to the next: -1.2% in 1991 and -1.4% in 1992– after the S&L crisis.

Marin County average residential home prices fell -12.7% in 2008 and -21% in 2009.  

 A unit-sale weighted average of Southern, Central & Northern Marin show Southern Marin prices are down -17.4%, Central Marin down -13.1%, and Northern Marin down -18.4% from 2008 levels.

For much more more information from a mile high perspective please see right nav bar, click & read “Marin Update”.

Mill Valley Real Estate
For several months now the low end of Mill Valley Homes: or those under $1.25m have been really active. The same goes for almost every town in Marin except Sausalito– and the reason is that the buyers in the marketplace with the most urgency to buy right now are mainly families moving either out of San Francisco or relocating here and wanting a decent public school system within close proximity to the San Francisco job market.

The big change in the marketplace in Mill Valley is the middle market and high end are all of a sudden very active– showing 33% of the homes on the market in contract. There is clearly a surge in demand hitting the marketplace and lets all hope it continues thru the summer. Sellers are advised to rush their properties to the market to benefit from this surge in demand– I do not forsee it continuing through the summer.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Current Inventory Data

Mill Valley Real Estate Inventory Graph 2/25/10

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Current Inventory Data 2

Mill Valley Real Estate Inventory Bar Graph 2/25/10

Please see the below information and call Dave DuPont for further insight 415-867-6611.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Quarterly Data

Mill Valley Average Price By Q4

Unit Sales are seeing a rebound when compared to the last two 4th quaters. But if you look at several graphs below of unit sales by year we see that the improvement in the 4th quarter of 2009 was really just pent-up demand that brought us back in line with 2008 unit sales and far off the pace of 2007.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 2

Mill Valley Quarterly Q4 Unit Sales

The below graph is very telling. Selling $/sqft are 19% off 2008 levels and 23.5% off 2007 levels.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 3

Mill Valley Quarterly Q4 $/SQFT Data

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 3

Mill Valley Quarterly Q4 $/SQFT Line Graph

In the shape of a bubble…

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 4

Mill Valley Quarterly Q4 Average Prices

Mill Valley is a seasonal market…

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 5

Mill Valley Quarterly Q4 Unit Sales

One way to look at it is that Mill Valley is back to 2003-2004 level prices. However– I hear this frequently in the marketplace but it doesn’t really mean anything– we could be going back to 1997 prices. The truth is that people who purchase homes in Marin anywhere near these levels will be just fine– its all about finding the righ home at a decent priceand having a 3-5 time horizon.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Annual Home Sale Data

Mill Valley Annual Average Prices

Median prices are down less than average home prices– which means the spread between them is narrowing which means the lower segments of the market are more active than the higher segments.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Annual Home Sale Data 2

Mill Valley Annual Median Prices

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Annual Home Sale Data 2

Mill Valley Annual SFR Unit Sales

Mill Valley CA Real Estate  8 year Annual Home Sale Data

Mill Valley 8 Year Sales Data Annual Change

Long term home price appreciation is driven by incomes and jobs first and foremost, and interest rates secondarily.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Census & Income Data

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Census & Income Data 2

Mill Valley CA Real Estate 35 year price trends

In 2008 and 2009, Dave and the DuPont Group are leading agents in Marin County Real Estate. Since the recession began in earnest in 2008, Dave personally closed over 36 sales and $47m in real estate sales, and his group has closed over $60m. For 2 years running Dave has sold more homes than any other agent at DB Sotheby’s Intl Realty. The data in these pages represents the extra mile we go for clients and is our competitive advantage over other agents in all parts of Marin. Now is not the time to select an agent to represent you because they are a friend or even because they may have represented you in the past. The work habits most realtors has evolved over the past 20 years are not translating well into selling homes in today’s real estate environment where home buyers make decisions because of financial considerations as opposed to emotional ones.

Dave is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Certified Financial Manager (CFM), received his MBA from Pepperdine University, a CA real estate broker and worked for approximately 10 years in the San Francisco financial district. This Blog works in conjunction with The DuPont Groups primary web site.

Please call me to discuss this information in more detail 415-867-6611 – Dave

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