Tiburon CA Real Estate Market 2009 Review

February 11, 2010

Filed under: Tiburon — dwdupont @ 9:11 pm

Marin Real Estate
In the last 44 years, there have been only two years (excluding 2008 & 2009) when average home prices in Marin County have decreased from one year to the next: -1.2% in 1991 and -1.4% in 1992– after the S&L crisis.

Marin County average residential home prices fell -12.7% in 2008 and -21% in 2009.  

 A unit-sale weighted average of Southern, Central & Northern Marin show Southern Marin prices are down -17.4%, Central Marin down -13.1%, and Northern Marin down -18.4% from 2008 levels.

For much more more information from a mile high perspective please see right nav bar, click & read “Marin Update”.

Tiburon Real Estate
Tiburon homes have had a mixed year. Statistically SFR home prices haven’t fallen much from their 2007 peak, about -11%. Average selling $/sqft have fallen more about -17%.  Homes continue to sell in Tiburon very close to fair value, which is surprising as this is not happening anywhere else in the county.  Most homes in most towns in Marin are trading at a 5-15% discount to what my model shows to be “fair value”.

Why? There really isn’t much on the market with views in Tiburon that is turn-key and buyers are still paying up for views and updated homes.

Tiburon CA Real Estate Current Inventory Data

Tiburon Current Inventory Graph 2/25/10

Tiburon CA Real Estate Current Inventory Data 2

Tiburon Current Market Data: Inventory in Contract 2/25/10

While most towns in Marin are really seeing a surge in demand hitting the marketplace, Tiburon is only seeing a mild uptick. Prices are still relatively too high for many homes– sellers haven’t adjusted their prices fast enough and are going to end up getting even less for their homes as this recession intensifies later this summer, fall and into next year. An estimated 5 million additional foreclosures are likely to shock the banking system and may result in another leg down in this recession.

Condo prices in Tiburon are simply in a state of free fall and are bound to recover at some point. For more info about the shocking state of Tiburon condo prices please call Dave. 415-867-6611

Tiburon CA Real Estate Annual Home Sale Data

Tiburon 8 Year Sales Data Change SFR & Condo

The current state of the market for single family homes in Tiburon shows the surge in demand that is hitting the market. This surge in buyer interest is greater than anything we’ve seen since summer of 2008; as a result I anticipate the next 8 weeks to be the best time to sell a home in Tiburon in 2010 AND since summer of 2008. If sellers wait too long to list their homes, the next round of foreclosures and a stock market sell off may scare all the buyers off again…

 

I remember quite well in 2007 everyone saying that this home or that home sold for $1000/sqft like it was normal…

Tiburon CA Real Estate Quarterly Data

Tiburon Quarterly $/SQFT by Q4

Q4 2008 and 2009 is off the pace of the preceeding three years. In analyzing the data for all Marin towns, it is primarily the high end of the market and particularly in Southern Marin where the greatest effect of the Bubble was felt.

Tiburon CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 2

Tiburon Quarterly Unit Sales

The below chart is not a cardiograph… it shows how seasonal our markets are… the best time to sell a house each year is during the spring months. In fact with data like this why would you ever sell a home at any other time of the year if you had a choice…?

Tiburon CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 3

Tiburon Quarterly $/SQFT Line Graph

Tiburon CA Real Estate Quarterly Data 4

Tiburon Quarterly Uit Sales Line Graph

Tiburon CA Real Estate Real Estate Rates of return

Notice the rates of return above and below when you add the effects of leverage (mortgage). Why would you invest your money in anything else? During the early Bubble years I worked at Merrill Lynch as CFP/Financial planner/advisor and everyone i spoke with in the Bay Area was investing in real estate. Young professionals were taking $50,000 bonus’ and leveraging up into $2mm investment properties. I tried to tell folks we were approaching the end of the cycle and that prices were bound to correct. Unfortunately– there was no data to draw from that showed that Marin real estate prices could actually go down… so everybody assumed it was a risk free investment; and by comparison stocks, bonds and mutual funds looked relatively boring with low returns.

Tiburon CA Real Estate Real Estate Rates of return 2

Tiburon CA Real Estate Annual Home Sale Data

Tiburon Annual Average SFR Price

I have plenty of data on Tiburon condos, but the only chart I am going to put in this blog / market update is the below chart. Tiburon condo prices are in free fall. The best real estate investments in Marin right now are condominiums. Call me and I will tell you why… Dave 415-867-6611.

Tiburon CA Real Estate Annual Home Sale Data

Tiburon Annual Average Condo Price

Tiburon CA Real Estate Census & Income Data

The average home buyer in Tiburon needs almost $800,000 cash in the bank to afford a downpayment on an average home with a 70% mortgage, while also retaining a rainy day fund of cash left over in the bank should anything go wrong.

Tiburon CA Real Estate Census & Income Data

Tiburon CA Real Estate Census & Income Data 3

 

Tiburon CA Real Estate Return graph

In 2008 and 2009, Dave and the DuPont Group are leading agents in Marin County Real Estate. Since the recession began in earnest in 2008, Dave personally closed over 36 sales and $47m in real estate sales, and his group has closed over $60m. For 2 years running Dave has sold more homes than any other agent at DB Sotheby’s Intl Realty. The data in these pages represents the extra mile we go for clients and is our competitive advantage over other agents in all parts of Marin. Now is not the time to select an agent to represent you because they are a friend or even because they may have represented you in the past. The work habits most realtors has evolved over the past 20 years are not translating well into selling homes in today’s real estate environment where home buyers make decisions because of financial considerations as opposed to emotional ones.

Dave is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Certified Financial Manager (CFM), received his MBA from Pepperdine University, a CA real estate broker and worked for approximately 10 years in the San Francisco financial district. This Blog works in conjunction with The DuPont Groups primary web site.

Please call me to discuss this information in more detail 415-867-6611 – Dave

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