Tiburon CA Real Estate

May 20, 2010

Filed under: Tiburon — dwdupont @ 7:23 am

Until now Tiburon has weathered the recession with little blood spilled. The reason has more to do with the holding capacity of Tiburon sellers– being wealthier and generally more successful, they can withstand downturns longer than people in other areas; but eventually homes get listed and sold at price levels that make sense given incomes in the area. My data shows that the average homes in Tiburon are trading at over 6 times average incomes when the normal range is closer to 4. We will have more accurate income data in 6 months or so when the Census data is published, but the point is that the paradigm for Tiburon home purchases was recreated during the bubble years and  needs to be redefined.

Tiburon Single Family Homes are in moderate correction mode -2% over the last 3 months versus the trailing 12 months as measured by $/sqft of sold homes. A more positive statistic is that Tiburon average prices are up almost 6% during this time. Either way, the data is at best mixed and is not good as it coincides with the Spring Rush after a very slow year.

Tiburon condos are actually doing MUCH better over the last 3 months +8%, but remember that was after 40% declines in 2009.

Tiburon homes in contract as shown below are a coincident indicator of activity in the market. As you can see measuring this blog to past Tiburon blogs, more homes are selling at lower prices. My guess is that the direction of the market over the coming months will be moderately negative as distressed situations that have been waiting for 18 months for resolution are finally coming to market, or are being repriced to more realistic levels.

The market for Tiburon homes has had a tough week. There following homes have either recently sold or are in contract:

1)      140 Lyford Drive, Tiburon wonderful lot – 5,023 sqft

  • This house sold for $4.4m in 2005
  • Closing Price Today = $3.370m
  • sold for $670/sqft

2)      7 Hillcrest, Tiburon built in 2007 & well appointed – 4,950sqft

  • Sold for $2.950m on 2/24/10
  • Sold for $605sqft

3)      2311 Spanish Trail Rd

  • Sold for $3.030m on 4/30/10
  • $678/sqft

4)      70 Gilmartin Drive, built in 1990 – 5,560sqft

  • Sold 3/27/10 for $3.275m
  • $589$/sqft

5)      490 Ridge Rd. Tiburon, brand new house on a wonderful view lot with a pool $4,111sqft

  • Contingent near $3.3m asking price

6)      616 Ridge Road,–went pending back in December – OLDer COMP

  • Sold at $3.321m
  • $683/sqft

7)      198 Stewart Drive – This sale is over 6 1/2 months old—the Tiburon market has declined substantially since then – OLD COMP

  • Sold for $3.065m 11/5/09
  • $785/sqft
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