Stinson Beach CA Real Estate Update Q1 2011

April 10, 2011

Filed under: Stinson Beach — dwdupont @ 7:04 am

Stinson Beach CA Real Estate Trends
Employment leads real estate which is why it is so important to measure regional economic data together with statistical trends to find opportunities or anomalies in our markets. The more recent the “comp” the less it tells us about these trends in real worth, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. From this perspective at the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. We use a full business cycle of data to determine “fair value” and trailing 12 month data to show where homes are trading in relation to fair value.

For most towns of Marin County including Stinson Beach, the outlook for real estate is fair—which is very good relative to most other places in the nation. The market for Commercial office space is picking up in San Francisco and this foreshadows new jobs and greater demand in 6-12 months. The current double dip we are seeing in prices in Marin is more reflective of the cost of construction, the dated nature of many homes and sellers of those dated homes becoming acclimated to the new pricing structure—i.e. dated homes are selling closer to lot value given the costs inherent in bringing them up to current trends in buyers tastes and wants. In many case the cost of tearing down and rebuilding is only 20-30% greater than the costs of remodel.

BUYERS:

This recovery is all about location and San Francisco is one of the few premium areas poised for continued recovery as commercial office building data foreshadows. New SF offices bring new jobs, and jobs bring home buyers. Demand is strong right now in the lower market segments but slow in the higher end as the charts below indicate. Your biggest concern should be inflation (or stagflation as the case may be)… The loose global monetary policy of the previous few years at some point will bring very quick spike in prices similar to what was seen in the late 1970s when inflation went from 6% to 15% in several months.  The timing on this is uncertain, but will likely coincide with a significant event like a change in global reserve currency or the bankruptcy of a US state or municipality. Real estate is not a bad investment during times of inflation especially in preferential locations close to diversified employment markets. The key is locking in long term interest rate before interest rates spike. If you are keen on buying, please call me and lets put this data to good use in negotiations.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information.

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