Belvedere CA Real Estate Q1 2011 Update

April 13, 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Belvedere — dwdupont @ 12:46 pm

Belvedere CA Real Estate Trends

Belvedere 2010 was the busiest year since 2005 by unit sales, but like other S. Marin towns prices are still falling and have reached new post recession lows in Q1 ’11. Belvedere real estate is a tale of two markets: wonderful homes in preferential locations continue to sell at premium prices as the 12/23/10 sale of 67 Belvedere exemplifies.

In an average year during the last business cycle  30 homes sold in Belvedere at an average price of $3.2m or $992.sqft. The trailing 12 months topped this pace in unit sales, but at 7% lower prices. The biggest hit to Belvedere real estate are lot values—off almost 18%.

Of all Southern Marin County towns Belvedere has the fewest homes in contract. At 18% Belvedere is still stuck in a difinitive buyers market. o% of the homes in the top quartile of listings are in contract. Interestingly when compaing the lot value and structure value charts at the bottom you see that buyers are looking for finished homes and not so much looking for a project on a great lot. In fact– the depreciated structure value of homes that have traded in the last 12 months is very near the business cycle average, which is strong. Unfortunately, lot values are off -18% right now– with the cost of  building on the island combined with the near lunacy at the planning board, one can understand buyers reluctance to embrace a property that needs a makeover.

All towns in Southern Marin react to business cycle changes differently. Belvedere usually leads the market as generally the folks who have made it onto the island are there for a reason (i.e. they don’t waste time writing real estate blogs that no one reads)– Belvedere home owners understand the phases of the business cycle and can postion themselves for the upcycle. It is interesting that there is so little activity happening on the island one must consider that pricing could be a factor… why:

 The commercial real estate market for office space in San Francisco has come alive and is a prelude to increased demand in Marin County in 6-12 months. We went to a panel of commercial real estate entrepreneurs in San Francisco 3/30/11 including Maxwell Drever, Doug Shorenstein, and Stuart Shiff and they are all positioned for liquidating in the next ‘up’ market– i.e. they know the cycle has turned and are ahead of the curve. Their message about the market for commercial opportunities was : if you are waiting for “the bottom” it has already passed. The “generational opportunities” you heard about in the press were few and far between. There is a mountain of global money chasing cash flow from the best buildings in the best locations in the US—and these are trading at attractive prices. Older assets and those in sub-par locations simply aren’t trading or are going very cheap.

 There are a number of incredible properties listed for sale but at eye-popping prices. The truth is that it can cost thousands of dollars a square foot to build in these dramatic Belvedere locations– one seller claims to have over $3500/sqft invested in their home.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

This is the “recovery” we are talking about is all about liquidity– sellers able to find buyers. Many parts of the county do not have this kind of liquidity and the result is that 1 in 24 homes are in foreclosure and in many areas like Reno, Sacramento, Boise and many small cities in Florida the number is 1 in 10 homes in foreclosure.  When you measure Southern Marin County Real Estate in relation to these other areas what you see is a recovering market here and that is confirmed by commercial real estate movements in San Francisco forcasting new jobs and increased demand on the horizon.

Belvedere CA Real Estate, like Tibruon and Mill Valley has just hit a new recession price low.

The TDG Price index below is a combination of median prices, average prices, $/sqft and home size ans is more telling than either average or median prices alone. By this measure the trailing 12 month data is slightly better than 2010 data which actually is good as the winter is always slow with weaker demand/prices, and the trailing 12 months data at the end of Q1 includes 2 winter periods. I think prices this Spring with bounce given the liquidity in the market, the activity in SF resi, and commercial real estate activity in SF.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave DuPont received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us any time for more information. We are eager to earn your business.

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