Sausalito CA Real Estate Update Q1 2011

April 13, 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Sausalito — dwdupont @ 12:46 pm

Sausalito Real Estate Trends

Sausalito was lost in the fog to buyers and struggling more than any S. Marin town for several years and just emerged in the last 6 months to lead the recovery. The demographic of Sausalito home shoppers is different from other Marin towns—only 15% of households have children, and is more reflective of a San Francisco buyer’s alternative than a Marin lifestyle choice.  Prices and sales in SF best neighborhoods are recovering ahead of Marin which is normal and Sausalito benefits from SF demand. In a typical year during the last business cycle (2004-present) 60 SFR homes trade in Sausalito with median price of $1.275m or $610sqft. We are currently running about 6.5% below on price and about 9% below on unit sales.

Employment leads real estate which is why it is so important to measure regional economic data together with statistical trends to find opportunities or anomalies in our markets. The more recent the “comp” the less it tells us about these trends in real worth, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. From this perspective at the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. We use a full business cycle of data to determine “fair value” and trailing 12 month data to show where homes are trading in relation to fair value.

For most towns of Marin County including Sausalito CA Real Estate, the outlook is fair—which is very good relative to most other places in the nation. The market for Commercial office space is picking up in San Francisco and this foreshadows new jobs and greater demand in 6-12 months.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

25% of the homes on the market are in contract. This is representative of a balanced market.

The % in contract above and unit sale data below is very important. This is the “recovery” we are talking about. Its all about liquidity– sellers able to find buyers and keeping homes out of foreclosure. Many parts of the county do not have this kind of liquidity and the result is that 1 in 24 homes are in foreclosure and in many areas like Reno, Sacramento, Boise and many small cities in Florida the number is 1 in 10 homes in foreclosure.  When you measure Southern Marin County Real Estate in relation to these other areas what you see is a recovering market here and that is confirmed by commercial real estate movements in San Francisco forcasting new jobs and increased demand on the horizon.

Sausalito home prices are having their best year in 3.

But… prices are certainly still well below the peak by $/sqft.

Q4 2010 was a great quarter for Sausaltio real estate. The winter pull back is to be expected especially with all the rain this year

**The line graphs data below and orange bar graphs above represent RESI prices which includes Condos and Single family homes. The green bar graphs at the bottom represent only Single Family homes without condo prices.***

Q4 2010 was the best quarter ever by $/SQFT. Unfortunately Q1 ’11 is one of the worst of the recession!

The TDG Price index below is a combination of median prices, average prices, $/sqft and home size ans is more telling than either average or median prices alone.The trailing 12 month data is slightly better than 2010 data which actually is good as the winter is always slow with weaker demand/prices, and the trailing 12 months data is only 2.5% below the business cycle mean which means many homes in Sausalito homes are trading very near “Fair Value”.

This is interesting data in the below two graphs: Lot values are very close to the business cycle mean while structure values are not as strong. This shows buyers are looking for Sausalito CA homes in good lots/locations and are less worried about the quality of finishes. This would make sense as the average Sausalito home buyer is not a family and can stomache a project better than 2 parents with a home full of kids.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave DuPont received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us any time for more information. We are eager to earn your business.

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