Tiburon CA Real Estate Q1 2011 Update

April 13, 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Tiburon — dwdupont @ 12:48 pm

Tiburon CA Real Estate Trends

Tiburon weathered the recession with less volatility than any town in Marin County due to its preferential location, family friendly homes, world class views, and Reed School system. Similarly, sellers in Tiburon generally have deeper pockets that can withstand  downturns longer. That said, prices are still falling Tiburon as dated inventory sits, stagnates and eventually sells. The average year during the last business cycle (2004-present) 105 SFR homes trade in Tiburon with median price around $1.9m or 715$sqft. We are currently running about 10% below that pace on price and about 5% below on unit sales.  20% of the homes on the market are in contract anything below 20% is generally considered weak and representative of a buyers market.

Employment leads real estate which is why it is so important to measure regional economic data together with statistical trends to find opportunities or anomalies in our markets. The more recent the “comp” the less it tells us about these trends in real worth, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. From this perspective at the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. We use a full business cycle of data to determine “fair value” and trailing 12 month data to show where homes are trading in relation to fair value.

For most towns of Marin County including Tiburon CA Homes, the outlook for real estate is fair—which is very good relative to most other places in the nation. The market for Commercial office space is picking up in San Francisco and this foreshadows new jobs and greater demand in 6-12 months.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

20% of the homes on the market are in contract which is on the weaker side of balanced but still OK. However, there is only 1 home above $2.5m that is in contract which tells a different story for more the expensive homes in Tiburon CA.

**The line graphs data below and orange bar graphs above represent RESI prices which includes Condos and Single family homes. The green bar graphs at the bottom represent only Single Family homes without condo prices.***

The % in contract above and unit sale data below is very important. This is the “recovery” we are talking about. Its all about liquidity– sellers able to find buyers and keeping homes out of foreclosure. Many parts of the county do not have this kind of liquidity and the result is that 1 in 24 homes are in foreclosure and in many areas like Reno, Sacramento, Boise and many small cities in Florida the number is 1 in 10 homes in foreclosure.  When you measure Southern Marin County Real Estate in relation to these other areas what you see is a recovering market here and that is confirmed by commercial real estate movements in San Francisco forcasting new jobs and increased demand on the horizon.

Price-wise Q1 in Tiburon CA was quite different:

It doesn’t take much to scare the turtle back into its shell and that is exactly what happened. this was  a blip exacerbated by several global events including revolution in the middle east and the resulting spike of oil, earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The national real estate data especially for new home sales and non-core cities certainly hasn’t helped. In a deflationary cycle everyone waits to buy homes. The strange characterisitc in this cycle is that inflation is already here in food, energy, health care, education; almost everything but housing. And the pace of inflation is likely to start accelerating in the next few years.

The dichotomy of core and non-core markets will likely continue for several years as the changes to our economy over the last several decades (from manufacturing to service industries) has left tertiary cities and rural locations with few economic opportunities.

The green bar graphs below are just SFR homes data. 

The TDG Price index below is a combination of median prices, average prices, $/sqft and home size ans is more telling than either average or median prices alone. By this measure the trailing 12 month data is slightly better than 2010 data which actually is good as the winter is always slow with weaker demand/prices, and the trailing 12 months data at the end of Q1 includes 2 winter periods. I think prices this Spring with bounce given the liquidity in the market, the activity in SF resi, and commercial real estate activity in SF.

SMREB and www.TheDuPontGroup.net is the only place you can find lot values for Tiburon. How valuable do you think that might be as a buyer?

Where can you get the average depreciated value ofv homes in Tiburon CA? Only here or at www.TheDuPontGroup.net . Please call us. We are eager to ear your business?

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave DuPont received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us any time for more information. We are eager to earn your business.

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