July « 2011 « Southern Marin Real Estate Blog

Marin County Q2 2011 Update

July 3, 2011

Filed under: 1. Marin Update — dwdupont @ 11:45 am

Please scoll down to see Q2 2011 Data. Also please consider that I compile all this data personally. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller:

Big Picture:
A distinct surge in positive home buying sentiment appeared in the first few months of 2011 triggered primarily by people wanting the recession to be done with and reacting to each positive media announcement as proof that the “Great Recession” was FINALLY OVER! Unfortunately, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the revolutions in the Middle East combined with dismal US economic data domestically reversed this media consumer trend and scared the home buying turtles back in their shells.

The current statistics clearly indicated a double dip in prices in Marin County—the severity of which is town dependent: Tiburon is having its worst year on record while Ross, and Kentfield are having quite positive years. This broad based double dip in prices is more reflective of sellers finally accepting the new pricing structure that a general decline in the pricing structure itself.

This double dip in prices combined with rising (energy) prices hint to a potential rough economy for a year or two ahead. I anticipate 5 more years of challenging real estate market conditions broken up by brief periods of buying activity.

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived value and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charged negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information.

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Mill Valley CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Mill Valley — dwdupont @ 11:40 am

Local jobs and salaries drive trends in local real estate sales & prices. The more recent the “comp”, the less it tells us about long term trends in valuation, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. At the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. Mill Valley is currently trading about 11% below “fair value in a balanced market” (FVBM) .

In a typical year during the last business cycle (2004-present) 310 SFR homes trade in Mill Valley with median price around $1.14m or $524/sqft. We are currently running below that pace. Mill Valley and all S. Marin towns are still struggling. The bright side is there is liquidity in the market and jobs in SF.

23% of listed homes are in contract a bit less than normal for this time of year.

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Tiburon CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Tiburon — dwdupont @ 11:35 am

Last quarter we wrote that Tiburon had weathered the recession with the least price volatility of any town in Marin County due to its preferential location, family-friendly homes, world class views, and Reed School system. However, after several summers of cold & foggy weather buyers are bypassing Tiburon and choosing Ross, Kentfield and Larkspur. The result so far in 2011 is the WORST year on record for Tiburon. No homes have traded on the MLS above $3.7m. Prices are likely to revert towards the mean & rebound in the 2nd half.

The average year during the last business cycle (2004-present) 105 SFR homes trade in Tiburon with a median price around $1.9m or 715/$sqft. We are running about -18% below that pace on price and about 10% below on unit sales.

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Belvedere CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Belvedere — dwdupont @ 11:34 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Belvedere CA Real Estate & Belvedere CA Homes

Statistically, Belvedere is having another terrible year. The pricing structure for the town was reset lower by the financial crisis & recession and sellers have yet to adjust. Buyer preferences currently favor flat yards, a pool, and warmer summer days, leading them north to preferential neighborhoods in Ross, Kentfield and Larkspur.

Homes need to be properly priced and positioned to capture fleeting moments of buying activity. This can take a few hours or 3 months. The idea of pricing a home high in the hopes of “finding the right buyer” no longer pertains to the current market. Very few homes have sold in the high end, due mostly to pricing.

In an average year during the last business cycle 31 homes change hands at about $3 million. The trailing 12 months show 33 homes have sold at a price 6% below the business cycle mean and 10% below by $/SQFT; average days on market is 185!

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Sausalito CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Sausalito — dwdupont @ 11:32 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Sausalito CA Real Estate & Sausalito CA Homes:

Sausalito is more of a San Francisco real estate alternative than the conscious Marin lifestyle choice for buyers. Families purchase about 30% of homes sold in Sausalito.

Commercial RE activity in SF SoMa is brisk which precedes buyer demand. That Job creation has already filtered into increased demand in SF proper and Sausalito has benefitting from that.

The second half of last year was very strong for Sausalito. This year is weaker than last year but the same trend holds the second half will be stronger than the first half.

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Ross CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: Central Marin,Ross — dwdupont @ 11:25 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Ross CA Real Estate & Ross CA Homes

Ross real estate is having a great year by price and a mediocre year by unit sales and is capitalizing on the trend of buyers wanting better weather and bypassing Southern Marin to find it. Ross, Kentfield, Larkspur and to a lesser extent Corte Madera are all having decent years. Northern & Central Marin are suffering a much different result in 2011.

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Corte Madera CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: Central Marin,Corte Madera — dwdupont @ 9:48 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Corte Madera CA Real Estate & Corte Madera Homes

Corte Madera Single Family home prices are having a flat to marginally up year and, like Larkspur CA Real Estate, show the dividing line between Southern Marin and price declines and Central Marin (Ross & Kentfield) Prices advances.

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Larkspur CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: Central Marin,Larkspur — dwdupont @ 9:27 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Larkspur CA Real Estate & Larkspur CA Homes

Larkspur real estate is having a decent year capitalizing on the trend of buyers wanting better weather and bypassing Southern Marin to find it. Ross, Kentfield, Larkspur and to a lesser extent Corte Madera are all having decent years. Northern & Central Marin are suffering a much different result in 2011.

We launched and sold a home at 18 College Court on the border of Larkspur and Kentfield in 3 hours late this Spring.

Comments (0)

Kentfield CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: Central Marin,Kentfield — dwdupont @ 8:12 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Kentfield CA Real Estate & Kentfield CA Homes

Kenfield real estate is having a great year capitalizing on the trend of buyers wanting better weather and bypassing Southern Marin to find it. Ross, Kentfield, Larkspur and to a lesser extent Corte Madera are all having decent years. Northern & Central Marin are suffering a much different result in 2011.

We launched and sold a home at 18 College Court on the border of Larkspur and Kentfield in 3 hours late this Spring.

As you scan the data below please

consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

Comments (0)

Novato CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011

Filed under: Northern Marin,Novato — dwdupont @ 7:54 am

Seller Tips:

Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Novato CA Real Estate & Novato CA Homes

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