Interim Market Update

February 26, 2013

Filed under: 1. Marin Update,2. Southern Marin,Central Marin,Northern Marin — dwdupont @ 8:15 am

Wow- what a difference 8 weeks makes. The bifurcation of the Marin Real Estate market continues now reaching a fever pitch- the low end of the market is literally manic but the high end of the market continues quite slow ex. still no sales yet over $5m in Tiburon for the last 6 months and only 3 over the previous 12 months.

Meanwhile 67% of the homes for sale in Marin county under $1.5m are in contract… 30% of homes in the market in contract represents a balanced market.. This stat is really really high and represents a very strong sellers market in this price range.

The market for homes below $1.35m has now reached a frenzied bubble-like mania with many homes in this price range receiving 5-20 offers and selling 10% over asking and almost 20% over last year’s valuations. Homes in this price range are now selling significantly OVER the business cycle mean.

Ex. A Recent home in San Rafael received 9 offers (one was a client of The DuPont Group).

My Trailing 12 months Valuation of the property was $696,904
Suggested offer was $791,936
Offer Made: $800,000k 25 day close
Approximate Peak market Value (2007)$879,049
Offers higher than Peak Market Value were received

Buyers in this price range are advised to act with caution. A lack of inventory is meeting pent-up demand, combined with fear of increasing mortgage rates; and causing emotion to escalate pricing- very quickly.

The Marin market in many towns is temporarily “broken”- the only homes that are coming to market and selling are those in the lower range creating a temporary bottleneck of buyers in a narrow price range. The trade up sellers/buyers are not moving yet- prices apparently still don’t financially support that niche. As prices increase we will see more homes coming to market and likely increasing activity in the upper market ranges.

A little patience will likely save buyers 5%-10%… However and interestingly: with interest rates likely to incrementally rise the actual monthly affordability may not be greatly affected by waiting…


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