2013 was a great year for Tiburon real estate. The combination of tight inventory & strong demand resulted in a leap in prices. The below TDG Price index shows Tiburon trading very near its all-time high.
The median sale price often a “reality check” has now exceeded ‘07 levels. Tiburon median home prices are now +31% above the ‘11 recession bottom and +15% above the Biz Cycle trend. The spike in house size is a major factor, see below:
However, average selling $/SQFT remains 12% below ‘07 levels? Two reasons account for this conflicting story- first Tiburon lot values as a derivative of home sales are at an all-time high. The average lot value in Tiburon as a derivative of home prices is $1.19m and the 95th% lot value is $2.88m. The maximum lot/location value that buyers paid to live in Tiburon in 2013 is approximately $7.3m- about the same maximum lot value is Kentfield.
Second, amazingly- the median size home that sold in Tiburon in ‘13 is $3,168sqft – 22% higher than last year! And 18% higher than median ’07 sales. People are paying up for limited Tiburon inventory and buying much larger homes..
Selling $/SQFT data remains -12% below ‘07 levels:
The median structure value (aka depreciated market value) of a Tiburon house is $346/sqft or -10% below the ‘07 peak.
The below table shows the relative strength of each market segment in Tiburon. Ex.: in the bottom 10% of ‘13 Tiburon home sales, the average price was $1,022,417 – 16% above the business cycle mean. The highest 10% of ‘13 Tiburon sales, the average price was $5,030,108 which is -5% below the business cycle mean. The high-end of the market in Tiburon continues to struggle.
In this data-rich environment, the side with the best data has an edge in negotiations. High-end buyers in Marin are often successful executives and respond well to reason & data. The truth is: buyers want to buy – the just don’t want to ‘feel’ like they overpaid. Our data has successfully closed a number of negotiations which were otherwise stalled. High-end buyers in Marin are successful executives and respond to reasoned arguments backed by data.
Tiburon buyers continue to struggle with limited inventory except in the highest price range. Buyers will pay-up for completed homes but shy away from listings that require a major project- anything more than Kitchen, bathrooms and landscaping give buyers second thoughts on price. High-end buyers that commute into the city are increasingly passing on Tiburon & Belvedere, opting instead for Central Marin due to overcrowding of schools and traffic getting in/out of town. Successful selling strategies include late afternoon and evening showings to remind buyers of the magic of Tiburon Bay and City views, and tips for avoiding traffic.
The DuPont Group hopes to take 3 listings in Tiburon in 2014, please consider interviewing us for your listing or recommending us to a colleague.