Please scoll down to see Q2 2011 Data. Also please consider that I compile all this data personally. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller:

Big Picture:
A distinct surge in positive home buying sentiment appeared in the first few months of 2011 triggered primarily by people wanting the recession to be done with and reacting to each positive media announcement as proof that the “Great Recession” was FINALLY OVER!  Unfortunately, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the revolutions in the Middle East combined with dismal US economic data domestically reversed this media consumer trend and scared the home buying turtles back in their shells.

The current statistics clearly indicated a double dip in prices in Marin County—the severity of which is town dependent: Tiburon is having its worst year on record while Ross, and Kentfield are having quite positive years. This broad based double dip in prices is more reflective of sellers finally accepting the new pricing structure that a general decline in the pricing structure itself.

This double dip in prices combined with rising (energy) prices hint to a potential rough economy for a year or two ahead. I anticipate 5 more years of  challenging real estate market conditions broken up by brief periods of buying activity.

Seller Tips:

• Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
• The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and  price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
• The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

• Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
• Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Belvedere CA Real Estate & Belvedere CA Homes

Statistically, Belvedere is having another terrible year. The pricing structure for the town was reset lower by the financial crisis & recession and sellers have yet to adjust. Buyer preferences currently favor flat yards, a pool, and warmer summer days, leading them north to preferential neighborhoods in Ross, Kentfield and Larkspur.

Homes need to be properly priced and positioned to capture fleeting moments of buying activity. This can take a few hours or 3 months. The idea of pricing a home high in the hopes of “finding the right buyer” no longer pertains to the current market. Very few homes have sold in the high end, due mostly to pricing.

In an average year during the last business cycle 31 homes change hands at about $3 million. The trailing 12 months show 33 homes have sold at a price 6% below the business cycle mean and 10% below by $/SQFT; average days on market is 185!

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information

Belvedere CA Real Estate Trends

Belvedere 2010 was the busiest year since 2005 by unit sales, but like other S. Marin towns prices are still falling and have reached new post recession lows in Q1 ’11. Belvedere real estate is a tale of two markets: wonderful homes in preferential locations continue to sell at premium prices as the 12/23/10 sale of 67 Belvedere exemplifies.

In an average year during the last business cycle  30 homes sold in Belvedere at an average price of $3.2m or $992.sqft. The trailing 12 months topped this pace in unit sales, but at 7% lower prices. The biggest hit to Belvedere real estate are lot values—off almost 18%.

Of all Southern Marin County towns Belvedere has the fewest homes in contract. At 18% Belvedere is still stuck in a difinitive buyers market. o% of the homes in the top quartile of listings are in contract. Interestingly when compaing the lot value and structure value charts at the bottom you see that buyers are looking for finished homes and not so much looking for a project on a great lot. In fact– the depreciated structure value of homes that have traded in the last 12 months is very near the business cycle average, which is strong. Unfortunately, lot values are off -18% right now– with the cost of  building on the island combined with the near lunacy at the planning board, one can understand buyers reluctance to embrace a property that needs a makeover.

All towns in Southern Marin react to business cycle changes differently. Belvedere usually leads the market as generally the folks who have made it onto the island are there for a reason (i.e. they don’t waste time writing real estate blogs that no one reads)– Belvedere home owners understand the phases of the business cycle and can postion themselves for the upcycle. It is interesting that there is so little activity happening on the island one must consider that pricing could be a factor… why:

 The commercial real estate market for office space in San Francisco has come alive and is a prelude to increased demand in Marin County in 6-12 months. We went to a panel of commercial real estate entrepreneurs in San Francisco 3/30/11 including Maxwell Drever, Doug Shorenstein, and Stuart Shiff and they are all positioned for liquidating in the next ‘up’ market– i.e. they know the cycle has turned and are ahead of the curve. Their message about the market for commercial opportunities was : if you are waiting for “the bottom” it has already passed. The “generational opportunities” you heard about in the press were few and far between. There is a mountain of global money chasing cash flow from the best buildings in the best locations in the US—and these are trading at attractive prices. Older assets and those in sub-par locations simply aren’t trading or are going very cheap.

 There are a number of incredible properties listed for sale but at eye-popping prices. The truth is that it can cost thousands of dollars a square foot to build in these dramatic Belvedere locations– one seller claims to have over $3500/sqft invested in their home.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

This is the “recovery” we are talking about is all about liquidity– sellers able to find buyers. Many parts of the county do not have this kind of liquidity and the result is that 1 in 24 homes are in foreclosure and in many areas like Reno, Sacramento, Boise and many small cities in Florida the number is 1 in 10 homes in foreclosure.  When you measure Southern Marin County Real Estate in relation to these other areas what you see is a recovering market here and that is confirmed by commercial real estate movements in San Francisco forcasting new jobs and increased demand on the horizon.

Belvedere CA Real Estate, like Tibruon and Mill Valley has just hit a new recession price low.

The TDG Price index below is a combination of median prices, average prices, $/sqft and home size ans is more telling than either average or median prices alone. By this measure the trailing 12 month data is slightly better than 2010 data which actually is good as the winter is always slow with weaker demand/prices, and the trailing 12 months data at the end of Q1 includes 2 winter periods. I think prices this Spring with bounce given the liquidity in the market, the activity in SF resi, and commercial real estate activity in SF.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave DuPont received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us any time for more information. We are eager to earn your business.

Belvedere Q4 Update & Yearly Real Estate Review

Its been a difficult year for most properties priced above $1.5m. Recently there has been tremendous improvement in most market segments except the high end Belvedere CA Real Estate. In fact, the most notable story in S. Marin real estate is the continuing price slide in Belvedere—currently tied with Novato for the biggest price drop from the peak. Belvedere average prices are down ~29% from the 2007 high.

In thinly traded towns like Belvedere Homes, which averages just 29 sales each year, missing even several high end sales can mean the difference between a flat year and a statistically poor year– which is exactly what is happening this year.

There are 31 homes currently for sale in Belevedere; the average listing price is $6,775,097 or $1,427/sqft– the implied average lot value of these listings is above $5.3m. The average lot value in Belvedere is actually closer to $1.54m which means the lot / land component of value (as opposed to the actual structure / house value) of the average listing in Belvedere is 350% over priced.

Please call for more information and visit our property website at www.thedupontgroup.net .

Last, we spend a great deal of time researching these statistics. It is our competitive edge in the marketplace for your benefit– as we very often use this data to support our price negotiations. We work harder than other agents on this data primarily because want to earn your business. Please call or email us us today. 415-867-6611 Dave@thedupontgroup.net .

Happy Holidays & New Year!