Belvedere CA Real Estate 2013 Year-End Review

January 1, 2014

Filed under: 2. Southern Marin,Belvedere — dwdupont @ 6:16 pm

The 2013 data in Belvedere is misleading. The sale of 425 Belvedere at $24.5m and 27 Bellevue at $9.5m is skewing the data so that it looks like Belvedere had a better year than it truly did. Average prices for Belvedere increased 20% from last year and are at an all-time high. However median prices actually dropped -2% from last year, are -4% below the 7-year trend, and -11.5% below its 2006 peak.

 Belvedere-CA-Median of Average

The average homes sale for Belvedere in 2013 as shown above is $3,560,581, and the median was $2,525,000 – 71% of the average. Such a large difference between median and average selling price shows a great disparity in market segment strength- and generally is a sign of market that not in balance. The difference between the average and median is always high in towns like Ross and Belvedere. As you see above in 2008 and again in 2013, the average was over 140% of the median and likely is a harbinger of change. In 2008- this was a sign the market was poised for a fall, in 2013- I believe we will see increases in other segments of the markets notable the middle high-market as represented below by the 50%-80%th segments.Belvedere-Market-Segment-Ac

The median size home is 2,906, 7% smaller than last year. In an average year 5 homes sell between $4-$8m in Belvedere and this year there were only 2. The low end of the market is really strong especially around the lagoon, as well as the ultra-high end.

The below chart shows visually the data in the table above:

Belvedere-CA-Market Segment Strength

Despite the sale of 425 Belvedere and 27 Bellevue, Belvedere is struggling to find its equilibrium. The primary issue for Belvedere RE is twofold. First, the high-end buyer demographic for all but the Lagoon area is primarily successful executive boomers who have cashed out after illustrious careers.  That demographic is past its peak spending cycle and now planning for their golden years and the generational transfer of wealth. The result is the unwinding of assets and a plethora of exquisite homes for sale that hang like apples in the Garden of Eden.  Additionally, the investment banking moguls who once prowled in greater numbers are now infrequent buyers of $7m+ homes.

 

Second is the cost of building on the island- buyers have a very hard time wrapping their arms around the per SQFT numbers. The median depreciated structure value, removing lot value, is $440/ft. – the highest in Marin. The 95th% structure value (for just the house – excluding the lot) is $1,139/sqft. The maximum structure value in Belvedere is $1,733/sqft. There are several homes for sale in Belvedere that cost well over $2,000/sqft to build- with much of the building facilitated by barge.

The average business cycle lot value for Belvedere as a derivative of home sales is $1.7m, the 95th% is $4m, and the most expensive lot value on The Island is theoretically $11.3m.

Belvedere-CA-SFR-Lot-Values

When you put Lot Value and Structure Values together you find the price people are willing to pay for Belvedere homes either as a price or as explained by $/SQFT. Bewlow is the selling $/SQFT for Belvedere homes followed by graphs of prices.

Belvedere-CA-SFR-$SQFT

Median Prices:

Belvedere-CA-SFR-Med-Price

The DuPont Group Belvedere Price Index:

Belvedere-CA-SFR-TDG-$Index

The DuPont Group has the data Belvedere Buyers High-End buyers need to move forward and close escrow. We kindly ask that Belvedere residents that plan to sell homes in the near future interview The DuPont Group for your real estate transaction needs. Please call Dave DuPont 415-867-6611.

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