Please scoll down to see Q2 2011 Data. Also please consider that I compile all this data personally. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller:

Big Picture:
A distinct surge in positive home buying sentiment appeared in the first few months of 2011 triggered primarily by people wanting the recession to be done with and reacting to each positive media announcement as proof that the “Great Recession” was FINALLY OVER!  Unfortunately, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the revolutions in the Middle East combined with dismal US economic data domestically reversed this media consumer trend and scared the home buying turtles back in their shells.

The current statistics clearly indicated a double dip in prices in Marin County—the severity of which is town dependent: Tiburon is having its worst year on record while Ross, and Kentfield are having quite positive years. This broad based double dip in prices is more reflective of sellers finally accepting the new pricing structure that a general decline in the pricing structure itself.

This double dip in prices combined with rising (energy) prices hint to a potential rough economy for a year or two ahead. I anticipate 5 more years of  challenging real estate market conditions broken up by brief periods of buying activity.

Seller Tips:

• Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
• The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and  price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
• The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

• Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
• Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

Sausalito CA Real Estate & Sausalito CA Homes:

Sausalito is more of a San Francisco real estate alternative than the conscious Marin lifestyle choice for buyers. Families purchase about 30% of homes sold in Sausalito. 

Commercial RE activity in SF SoMa is brisk which precedes buyer demand. That Job creation has already filtered into increased demand in SF proper and Sausalito has benefitting from that.

The second half of last year was very strong for Sausalito. This year is weaker than last year but the same trend holds the second half will be stronger than the first half.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information

Sausalito Real Estate Trends

Sausalito was lost in the fog to buyers and struggling more than any S. Marin town for several years and just emerged in the last 6 months to lead the recovery. The demographic of Sausalito home shoppers is different from other Marin towns—only 15% of households have children, and is more reflective of a San Francisco buyer’s alternative than a Marin lifestyle choice.  Prices and sales in SF best neighborhoods are recovering ahead of Marin which is normal and Sausalito benefits from SF demand. In a typical year during the last business cycle (2004-present) 60 SFR homes trade in Sausalito with median price of $1.275m or $610sqft. We are currently running about 6.5% below on price and about 9% below on unit sales.

Employment leads real estate which is why it is so important to measure regional economic data together with statistical trends to find opportunities or anomalies in our markets. The more recent the “comp” the less it tells us about these trends in real worth, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. From this perspective at the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. We use a full business cycle of data to determine “fair value” and trailing 12 month data to show where homes are trading in relation to fair value.

For most towns of Marin County including Sausalito CA Real Estate, the outlook is fair—which is very good relative to most other places in the nation. The market for Commercial office space is picking up in San Francisco and this foreshadows new jobs and greater demand in 6-12 months.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

25% of the homes on the market are in contract. This is representative of a balanced market.

The % in contract above and unit sale data below is very important. This is the “recovery” we are talking about. Its all about liquidity– sellers able to find buyers and keeping homes out of foreclosure. Many parts of the county do not have this kind of liquidity and the result is that 1 in 24 homes are in foreclosure and in many areas like Reno, Sacramento, Boise and many small cities in Florida the number is 1 in 10 homes in foreclosure.  When you measure Southern Marin County Real Estate in relation to these other areas what you see is a recovering market here and that is confirmed by commercial real estate movements in San Francisco forcasting new jobs and increased demand on the horizon.

Sausalito home prices are having their best year in 3.

But… prices are certainly still well below the peak by $/sqft.

Q4 2010 was a great quarter for Sausaltio real estate. The winter pull back is to be expected especially with all the rain this year

**The line graphs data below and orange bar graphs above represent RESI prices which includes Condos and Single family homes. The green bar graphs at the bottom represent only Single Family homes without condo prices.***

Q4 2010 was the best quarter ever by $/SQFT. Unfortunately Q1 ’11 is one of the worst of the recession!

The TDG Price index below is a combination of median prices, average prices, $/sqft and home size ans is more telling than either average or median prices alone.The trailing 12 month data is slightly better than 2010 data which actually is good as the winter is always slow with weaker demand/prices, and the trailing 12 months data is only 2.5% below the business cycle mean which means many homes in Sausalito homes are trading very near “Fair Value”.

This is interesting data in the below two graphs: Lot values are very close to the business cycle mean while structure values are not as strong. This shows buyers are looking for Sausalito CA homes in good lots/locations and are less worried about the quality of finishes. This would make sense as the average Sausalito home buyer is not a family and can stomache a project better than 2 parents with a home full of kids.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave DuPont received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us any time for more information. We are eager to earn your business.

Sausalito Q4 & 2010 Year End Review

The biggest story in Southern Marin is a spike recovery in Sausalito real estate, as the charts below indicate. On the facing page notice Q4 2010 is the best ever by $/sqft, and the second best by price. This is a huge improvement and currently show Sausalito leading Southern Marin away from a bottom in Q1’10.

Pent-up demand for higher-end Sausalito homes flooded the market in the 6 weeks proceeding Thanksgiving. A number of homes closed that had been on the market for years, and currently 26% of the homes listed are in contract—indicative of a balanced market.

A number of $3m+ homes have traded and several more are poised to close including 9 Cloudview Trail $5m which rumour has it is goingto be bought by a certain Philly second baseman.

The average SFR home price in Sausalito is $1,489,127, or $616$/sqft. Average lot value is $550k.

Last, we spend a great deal of time researching these statistics. It is our competitive edge in the marketplace for your benefit– as we very often use this data to support our price negotiations. We work harder than other agents on this data primarily because want to earn your business. Please call or email us us today. 415-867-6611 Dave@thedupontgroup.net .

Happy Holidays & New Year!

The first town after crossing the Golden Gate Bridge is Sausalito-and above all it is a sailors’ town! Everywhere you look you’ll see maritime folks favorite playthings from kayaks to 200+ foot yachts. The town takes its name from one of the earliest Mexican Land Grants North of San Francisco– Rancho Saucelito to Nicolas Galindo in 1835– and was one of the busiest commercial areas in Marin during that time.

Sausalito’s year-round warm days and cool nights, artsy locals, and fantastic waterfront commerce and restaurants draw people from around the world and make Sausalito one of the greatest towns of Marin.

Sausalito is increasingly being considered by families due to its GREAT public school Willow Creek.

Sausalito was originally built as a summer getaway for wealthy San Franciscans, as the summer weather is significantly warmer and less foggy than San Francisco proper.

•October is the average warmest month.

•The highest recorded temperature was 99°F in 1961.

•On average, the coolest month is January.

•The lowest recorded temperature was 26°F in 1990.

•January is the average wettest month. (Compliments of the Sausalito COC website)

The Golden Gate Bridge was completed in 1937 linking San Francisco to Marin county and with it’s completion, Sausalito, and Marin Country in general, have evolved into ideal suburbs for the ideal City: great weather, interesting community, close proximity to downtown San Francisco, situated equidistant between two international airports (Oakland and SF), loads of public open space for team sports, hiking, biking, kayaking fishing, sailing, surfing and windsurfing.

Sausalito fronts the San Francisco Bay on its west-north-west flank. The San Francisco Bay is well known as a mecca for sailing and windsurfing and supports a diverse eco-system. The San Francisco Bay is the size of the state of Rhode Island and is the largest estuarine system on the west coasts of both North and South America. Learn more about the following San Francisco Bay.

When looking for houses in Sausalito, be sure to work with a realtor who knows about the different weather zones in Sausalito. Several hundred yards in one direction or the other can mean a difference of 10-15 degrees on an average Summer afternoon .

There are several great options for commuting to San Francisco including ferry and bus service. There are more than a few Sausalito residents who commute by bike to San Francisco and swear by it. Driving time to the financial district ranges 15-25 minutes depending on the time of day and commuters are very infrequently subject to ‘stop-and-go’ traffic.

Demographics:

•Population (2005): 9,100

•Median resident age: 51

•Average household income (2005): $96,800

•Average home price (2005): $1,398,000