Mill Valley Real Estate Trends
Employment leads real estate which is why it is so important to measure regional economic data together with statistical trends to find opportunities or anomalies in our markets. The more recent the “comp” the less it tells us about these trends in real worth, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. From this perspective at the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. We use a full business cycle of data to determine “fair value” and trailing 12 month data to show where homes are trading in relation to fair value.

For most towns of Marin County including Mill Valley, the outlook for real estate is fair—which is very good relative to most other places in the nation. The market for Commercial office space is picking up in San Francisco and this foreshadows new jobs and greater demand in 6-12 months. The current double dip we are seeing in prices in Marin is more reflective of the cost of construction, the dated nature of many homes and sellers of those dated homes becoming acclimated to the new pricing structure—i.e. dated homes are selling closer to lot value given the costs inherent in bringing them up to current trends in buyers tastes and wants. In many case the cost of tearing down and rebuilding is only 20-30% greater than the costs of remodel.

In a typical year during the last business cycle (2004-present) 305 SFR homes traded in Mill Valley with median price around $1.14m or 524$sqft. We are currently running about 13% below that on price and about 20% below on unit sales. Mill Valley and all Southern Marin towns are still clearly struggling. The bright side is that they are struggling less than other Marin towns and there is liquidity in the market and jobs in San Francisco. There are many other places in the nation and world much worse off, and very few that have our stability, lifestyle and career opportunities. The trend of marginal recovery will likely continue barring any other major shocks.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

27% of the homes on the market are in contract. This is representative of balanced market.

The % in contract above and unit sale data below is very important. This is the “recovery” we are talking about. Its all about liquidity– sellers able to find buyers and keeping homes out of foreclosure. Many parts of the county do not have this kind of liquidity and the result is that 1 in 24 homes are in foreclosure and in many areas like Reno, Sacramento, Boise and many small cities in Florida the number is 1 in 10 homes in foreclosure.  When you measure our real estate market in relation to those what you see is a recovering market here in Marin confirmed by commercial real estate movements in San Francisco and new jobs on the horizen.

It doesn’t take much to scare the turtle back into its shell and that is exactly what happened. this was  a blip exacerbated by several global events including revolution in the middle east and the resulting spike of oil, earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The national real estate data especially for new home sales and non-core cities certainly hasn’t helped. In a deflationary cycle everyone waits to buy homes. The strange characterisitc in this cycle is that inflation is already here in food, energy, health care, education; almost everything but housing. And the pace of inflation is likely to start accelerating in the next few years.

The dichotomy of core and non-core markets will likely continue for several years as the changes to our economy over the last several decades (from manufacturing to service industries) has left tertiary cities and rural locations with few economic opportunities.

Q1 2011 is starting off well by unit sales, but price in Mill Valley is now approaching post recession lows. Selling $/sqft is at post recession lows. Many homes have been sitting on the market– either officilally listed on the MLS or as “Pocket Listings” for several years and just now finding buyers and equilibrium prices. On the one hand one could say that prices hit new lows (which is true) on the other hand you could also show that prices haven’t changed in the last year, it just that more sellers of dated homes have finally gotten realistic about price and are accepting those prices.

**The line graphs data below and orange bar graphs above represent RESI prices which includes Condos and Single family homes. The green bar graphs represent only Single Family homes without condo prices.***

The green bar graphs below are just SFR homes data. The above data incluses CONDO data as well.

The TDG Price index below is a combination of median prices, average prices, $/sqft and home size ans is more telling than either average or median prices alone. By this measure the trailing 12 month data is slightly worse than 2010 data which is fairly normal as the winter is always slow with weaker demand/prices, and the trailing 12 months data at the end of Q1 includes 2 winter periods. I think prices with bounce given the liquidity in the market, the activity in SF resi, and commercial real estate activity in SF.

2003-2007: The good old days for sellers (and realtors) in Mill Valley.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate 2010 Review:

 The entry level of the market ($1.25m and below), like most areas in Marin, is brisk with 43% of the inventory in contract! Well priced Mill Valley homes are selling quickly. The big news is the middle market ($1.25-$1.85) has improved. There are 30 homes on the market, and approx. 38% in contract. This is a big change for the Mill Valley CA Resl Estate middle market. The high end is relatively slow but as the sales on the facing page show: 6 sales over $3m and one over $5.5m!

 Average SFR Mill Valley Homes are selling just under $550/sqft. The average Mill Valley SFR selling price is approximately $1.25m, average lot values are ~ $450k.

It took about 85 days to sell Mill Valley CA homes in 2010. The average size home to sell in Mill Valley is 2,272sqft. Indexed 1999 incomes support prices in the ~$1.37m range. CONDO data: Price -5%, unit sales -13%, $/sqft = $448, -5%. See data below

Last, we spend a great deal of time researching these statistics. It is our competitive edge in the marketplace for your benefit– as we very often use this data to support our price negotiations. We work harder than other agents on this data primarily because want to earn your business. Please call or email us us today. 415-867-6611 Dave@thedupontgroup.net .

 Happy Holidays & New Year!

Mill Valley real estate sets the standard by which all suburb / commuter towns should be measured: it is extremely family friendly, has great weather year-around, a fantastic selection of public and private schools, a plethora of nearby family activities to choose from, great restaurants, is close to a major urban center with a diverse economy and broad selection of corporate and non-corporate jobs; and as one resident aptly noted “it is close to everything I love to do!” Above all, Mill Valley is sophisticated town and a great place to raise a family. Due to the current economic  slump and pull back in real estate prices, You can find Mill Valley property in most price ranges ranging from condos for $400,000 to small homes starting in the high $500,000’s.

Nestled on the slopes of Mount Tamalpias amidst groves of Sequoia Redwood Trees, Mill Valley homes are spread out around a small town center with a rich heritage and colorful community. Like almost all of Marin County, Mill Valley property was originally home to Miwok Indians. In the late 1830′s, a large part of present day Tiburon, Corte Madera and Mill Valley Real Estate was granted to settler John Reed.

Reed was born in Dublin in 1805, and went to sea with a seafaring uncle at 15. He left the ship at Acapulco, where he stayed for six years, learning to speak Spanish fluently, before sailing north to Yerba Buena-later to be named San Francisco. Having befriended many influential people along his journeys, he was eventually issued a land grant from the Mexican government near present day Santa Rosa. Unfortunately the Cotate Indians drove him back to the relative safety of Southern Marin where he married the commandant’s daughter and was awarded another land grant-what is most of modern day Tiburon, Corte Madera and Mill Valley CA.

Reed harvested trees from Corte Madera and Tiburon for use in the Presidio and built a mill in a nearby valley-”Old Mill” in the area later named “Mill Valley”.

To find more about Mill Valley CA real estate, and Mill Valley property, please click search for homes.

Proximity to Everything

Mill Valley property’s proximity to San Francisco homes, neighborhoods & jobs, coastal mountains, beaches, boating in the SF bay, Napa and Sonoma wine country, typically attracts outdoor-oriented people who play as hard or harder than they work.

Mill Valley homes are also centrally located in Marin Real Estate– fairly equidistant from Sausalito, Tiburon, Corte Madera, Larkspur and Kentfield; and approximately equidistant from San Francisco, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael and Fairfax. This characteristic lends itself to evening and weekend sojourns to other nearby towns for movies, dinners, tennis and swim clubbing, and public parks / open space access. Nothing in Marin– or San Francisco for that matter– is really “too far away” from Mill Valley.

Neighborhoods

Mill Valley properties are comprised of many different neighborhoods located both within the “incorporated” town of Mill Valley as well as other parts that are “unincorporated” such as Strawberry, Tam Valley, parts of Homestead Valley etc. When looking for homes in Mill Valley it is important to work with a local realtor that knows the intricacies and characteristics of the neighborhoods-such as the weather and traffic patterns and public school system access.

Non rush hour driving time to downtown San Francisco, ranges from 20 to 25 minutes without traffic.

Family Friendly

If you are looking for a healthy, safe place that is conducive to raising a family-homes in Mill Valley are a great choice!

• There are a plethora of family-oriented restaurants (the ones that aren’t, still are during the ‘early shift’)
• Plenty of movie theaters with kids programming,
• Open spaces for community and school team sports.
• A great selection of both private and public schools (public school choice differs by neighborhood) see “Mill Valley Schools link”
• Large number of nearby family activities-see link
• Local Support organizations for parents

Interesting Statistics

• Population (2005): 13,000
• Median resident age: 45
• Average household income (2005): $156,100

Great Weather

The weather year-round in Mill Valley is fantastic-and if someone has told you that we don’t have seasons-don’t believe them, especially if you spend time in the Sierras / Lake Tahoe area 3 hours away. Spring in Mill Valley is characterized by breezy wider ranging temperatures with typical lows in the high forties and highs in the upper sixties to lower 70′s. Summer is generally characterized by higher low temps-low mid to 50′s and temperamental highs ranging from breezy 60′s to gorgeous 80′s. Fall is generally the best weather of the year and even warmer than summer. Winter runs the gamut from cold, clear nights, sometimes (though not often) reaching below freezing, to strong pacific storms that bring rain (and heavy snowfalls to the Sierras), and beautiful winter days that typically reach into the low 60′s and sometimes higher. Almost every winter you can count on a string beautiful January and/or February days in the 60s. The more outdoor activities one enjoys (think sailing, surfing and snow), the more conscious one is of our wonderful seasons and changing weather patterns.