Big Picture:
A distinct surge in positive home buying sentiment appeared in the first few months of 2011 triggered primarily by people wanting the recession to be done with and reacting to each positive media announcement as proof that the “Great Recession” was FINALLY OVER!  Unfortunately, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the revolutions in the Middle East combined with dismal US economic data domestically reversed this media consumer trend and scared the home buying turtles back in their shells.

The current statistics clearly indicated a double dip in prices in Marin County—the severity of which is town dependent: Tiburon is having its worst year on record while Ross, and Kentfield are having quite positive years. This broad based double dip in prices is more reflective of sellers finally accepting the new pricing structure that a general decline in the pricing structure itself.

This double dip in prices combined with rising (energy) prices hint to a potential rough economy for a year or two ahead. I anticipate 5 more years of  challenging real estate market conditions broken up by brief periods of buying activity.

Seller Tips:

• Sellers need to be priced properly, on the MLS, and on lockbox available for buyers to see at a moment’s notice to capture these fleeting spikes of buyer activity.
• The market has never been more price dependent and buyers never more informed and  price conscious. Homes must be priced within a “window of perceived value” in order to garner offers—otherwise the property won’t get many showings and is quite unlikely to sell.
• The typical seasonal trends of strong Springs and slow Summers & New Years have changed and now any time of the year is an equally challenging time list your home for sale. We never know when these spikes of buyer activity will occur and during the Great Recession they have occured sporadically year yound.

Buyer Tips:

• Success for home buyers is dependent on a quick trigger finger. Homes sit until prices fall into the window of perceived vale and then they sell very quickly. Don’t lose the deal because of a rounding error in highly charge negotiations.
• Buyers need to price homes by lot value and structure cost in addition to “the comps”. I have recently seen some homes trade for too much and others not enough because of valuation uncertainty.

San Rafael CA Real Estate & San Rafael CA Homes

San Rafael is having a broad based down year and is one of the only towns in Marin that didn’t actually have a psoitive 2010 in terms of price appreciation.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information.

San Rafael CA Real Estate Data Q2 2011 is a post from: Southern Marin Real Estate Blog

Employment leads real estate which is why it is so important to measure regional economic data together with statistical trends to find opportunities or anomalies in our markets. The more recent the “comp” the less it tells us about these trends in real worth, and the more it tells us about buyer psyche and current market value. From this perspective at the top of the market homes were trading no closer to their inherent value than they were at the bottom of the recession. We use a full business cycle of data to determine “fair value” and trailing 12 month data to show where homes are trading in relation to fair value.

For most towns of Marin County including San Rafael, the outlook for real estate is fair—which is very good relative to most other places in the nation. The market for Commercial office space is picking up in San Francisco and this foreshadows new jobs and greater demand in 6-12 months. The current double dip we are seeing in prices in Marin is more reflective of the cost of construction, the dated nature of many homes and sellers of those dated homes becoming acclimated to the new pricing structure—i.e. dated homes are selling closer to lot value given the costs inherent in bringing them up to current trends in buyers tastes and wants.

As you scan the data below please consider that we compile all this data personally. We don’t buy it and paste it here. Your choice to work with us will save you money as the incredible time commitment required to assemble and publish this data each quarter results in much stronger and more dynamic negotiations which ultimately benefit you whether you’re a buyer or a seller.

The DuPont Group is a dynamic real estate team active in Southern and Central Marin communities. Dave received his MBA from Pepperdine University and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Please call or email us anytime for more information

San Rafael CA Real Estate Q1 2011 Update is a post from: Southern Marin Real Estate Blog

Q3 San Rafael CA Real Estate Review is a post from: Southern Marin Real Estate Blog

Please reference the Marin Update for additional information.

Please call or email me at 415-867-6611 or email me at Dave@TheDuPontGroup.net to set up a time to talk.  Our marketing website is www.TheDuPontGroup.net and a Marin pricing tool can be found at www.hometoggle.com .

San Rafael CA Real Estate: Fall 2010 Update is a post from: Southern Marin Real Estate Blog

The Spring 2010 market is off to a roaring start. The momentum started late in 2009 in the lower market segments (bottom 2 price quartiles of each town) and has continued in those market segments. The health of any real estate market originates in the lower market segments and slowly ripples up the price spectrum until at the end of the cycle the top of the market peaks when the lower end has already started contracting—as happened in the last cycle. While average, median & $/SQFT price trends are marginally improving, unit sales are seeing a greater bounce.

Please start by reading the Marin Update:  at right click “Marin Update”.

Additional information regarding San Rafael CA Real Estate can be found on www.TheDuPontGroup.net , our groups primary website.

San Rafael CA Real Estate Q1 Market Update is a post from: Southern Marin Real Estate Blog

Marin County average residential home prices fell -12.7% in 2008 and -21% in 2009.  

 A unit-sale weighted average of Southern, Central & Northern Marin show Southern Marin prices are down -17.4%, Central Marin down -13.1%, and Northern Marin down -18.4% from 2008 levels.

For much more more information from a mile high perspective please see right nav bar, click & read “Marin Update”.

San Rafael Real Estate

San Rafael real estate is on fire– 40% of the homes on the market are in contract– any number over 20% indicates a healthy market and any number over 30% indicates a sellers market. The current number of 40% of the homes currently on the market in contract is improbably high given the fragile state of the economy, and the state budget crisis. In the book “Extraordinary Popular Delsions & The Madness of Crowds” the author documents many historical instances such as the Tulip Mania where humans act in unison– the demand hitting various towns in Marin is another instance of this and the patient buyer is advised to sit tight for a few months unless they find the absolutely perfect house.

San Rafael Current Inventory in Contract 2/25/10

San Rafael Inventory In Contract Bar Graph 2/25/10

San Rafael 8 Year Sales Data Change

San Rafael Quarterly Average Prices

San Rafael Quarterly $sqft

San Rafael Quarterly Unit Sales

San Rafael Real Estate Quarterly Average Prices

San Rafael Quarterly $/SQFT Line Graph

San Rafael Real Estate Quarterly Unit Sales 2

San Rafael Real Estate Annual Average Prices

San Rafael Annual Unit Sales

San Rafael Real Estate Annual Lot Values

San Rafael Annual Condo Median Sales Price

San Rafael 39 Year Average Price table

San Rafael Annual ROR

San Rafael Annual ROR Comparison

San Rafael ROR Comparison

In 2008 and 2009, Dave and the DuPont Group are leading agents in Marin County Real Estate. Since the recession began in earnest in 2008, Dave personally closed over 36 sales and $47m in real estate sales, and his group has closed over $60m. For 2 years running Dave has sold more homes than any other agent at DB Sotheby’s Intl Realty. The data in these pages represents the extra mile we go for clients and is our competitive advantage over other agents in all parts of Marin. Now is not the time to select an agent to represent you because they are a friend or even because they may have represented you in the past. The work habits most realtors has evolved over the past 20 years are not translating well into selling homes in today’s real estate environment where home buyers make decisions because of financial considerations as opposed to emotional ones.

Dave is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Certified Financial Manager (CFM), received his MBA from Pepperdine University, a CA real estate broker and worked for approximately 10 years in the San Francisco financial district. This Blog works in conjunction with The DuPont Groups primary web site.

Please call me to discuss this information in more detail 415-867-6611 – Dave

San Rafael CA Real Estate 2009 Review is a post from: Southern Marin Real Estate Blog